Vietnam is expected to import 72 million tons of coal by 2030 for electricity production
The demand for imported coal for power generation will increase from 20 million tons in 2020 to about 72 million tons in 2030, according to calculations by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, coal-fired power plants will have a capacity of about 50,000 MW, accounting for nearly 34% of the total installed capacity of power sources by 2030. This number is down by 9% compared to the revised VII plan. Therefore, the amount of coal imported for power production in the next 10 years will also decrease by about 20 million tons compared to the adjusted power plan VII.
In the source structure as calculated by the management agency, renewable energy will account for 27% in the next 10 years, about 38,300 MW, large hydroelectricity over 30 MW accounts for 19,200 MW and gas power is 27,800 MW.
Looking at the ratio of power structure, the pressure to ensure fuel supply for thermal power plants in Vietnam is great when domestic coal and gas sources are not enough to supply power plants.
In the first 8 months of 2020, Vietnam spent nearly US$2.9 billion importing 40.7 million tons of coal, up 39% in volume and nearly 6% in value over the same period in 2019. Major coal consuming industries stand out. The first is thermal power, cement, metallurgy, nitrogen fertilizer - chemicals.
In fact, the scenario of importing coal in large volume for electricity production is considered to be facing many difficulties due to the huge competition of countries importing coal with large volume in the world such as China, Japan, etc. Ban, India... Not to mention, at many times, the world coal supply and demand and prices are fluctuating, the price of imported coal is high, but it is not easy for importers to meet.
At the explanation session held by the National Assembly Economic Committee on electricity development until 2030, National Assembly Vice Chairman Phung Quoc Hien said that, with current conditions and the next few decades, the role of coal power is still needed. necessary, cannot be reduced or replaced.
Saying "coal power is not a crime to eliminate", but Minister of Industry and Trade Tran Tuan Anh said that in the medium and long term, this type of energy will develop at a reasonable level in the direction of prioritizing power units. large, high performance, using modern technology. In the immediate future, even in the power plan VIII that this ministry is drafting, the proportion of coal power in the source structure will decrease to 36-37%.
Currently, due to the impact of Covid-19, the load demand in the coming period will be lower than previous forecast results. According to the Institute of Energy's forecast, in the base scenario commercial electricity demand will maintain an increase of about 8% in the next 10 years, with commercial electricity expected to be 337.5 billion kWh in 2025 and 2030. is 478.1 billion kWh. Accordingly, commercial electricity will be reduced by 15 billion kWh in 2025 and 230 billion in 2030 compared with the adjusted power plan VII.
Because many large power sources are behind schedule, in order to ensure the balance of supply and demand from 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that it will study operation solutions to make the most of the existing power source and strengthen the development of energy sources. regenerative. Accordingly, converting 375 MW Hiep Phuoc thermal power plant fuel from using FO oil to LNG; rationally exploit wind and solar power sources; increase the import of electricity from Laos by about 3,000 mW by 2025 and consider increasing the output of imported 220 kV voltage from China...